Originally Posted by
uavking
If you are senior to me: 8.9 makes sense. Go to Spirit, et al.
If you're junior: Look, there is no way that 200-ish lifers are going to suddenly change their minds and flow. Obviously, we need to see the methodology behind both recruiting and ALPA numbers to be sure, but the truth is probably somewhere between both figures. Weight could likely be given to the recruiting number simply because their formula probably eliminates projected lifers (whether they've declined already or by age) from the get go.
Gotta play the long game, but also keep your options open.
Actually, it’s pretty easy to see the union’s method. Just look at the spreadsheet for interactive seniority list. AND it DOES account for the lifers staying put. What it doesn’t account for is attrition, which speeds flow, nor does it account for months where American hires little or no pilots, which slows flow.