Originally Posted by
Pedro4President
The crux of the 5-6 year flow rate is ATTRITION!!!! The average attrition maybe 19 per month but that doesn't impact your flow date at a 1:1 ratio. The more senior you are the less attrition impacts your flow. Your calculations doesn't seem to factor in this HUGE impact on flow.
I second this. KodiakRS, I appreciate you breaking down the numbers like you did because I think that is one of the more accurate representations of how a 5-6 year flow could be feasible. However, as aforementioned by a few others, the distribution of those attriting from the top (non-flows) is much lower than those less than 2.5 years at the company. A 6 year flow is possible, but not probable.
I know people joke about us getting stapled to the AA seniority list or getting thrown AA seniority numbers, but after the protected pilots all leave, what guarantees do we really have that the flow agreement won't be amended to reduce flow #s or even canceled to keep Envoy staffed? That's why I'm keeping my apps updated at the LCCs + Big 6. As much as I'd like to work for American, I'm not waiting around on fickle promises. The real "tangible" benefit to flow is consistent movement in seniority, but I know I'm not planning to stick around until my # comes up.