Originally Posted by
Voski
I second this. KodiakRS, I appreciate you breaking down the numbers like you did because I think that is one of the more accurate representations of how a 5-6 year flow could be feasible. However, as aforementioned by a few others, the distribution of those attriting from the top (non-flows) is much lower than those less than 2.5 years at the company. A 6 year flow is possible, but not probable.
Good point. I made a simple spreadsheet to do the calculation.
click here for screenshot
Add 21 months to the flow time for the Protected/Unprotected pilots to flow. That number was calculated assuming non-flow attrition occurs outside of the Protected/Unprotected pilot group but senior to a current day newhire. This is probably somewhat realistic based on the fact that most non-flow attrition is from pilots who have gained enough experience to qualify for an OAL interview but are still far enough away from flow to wait. This leaves us with 3 flow situations:
19 Non-Flow attrition all senior to our new hire until flow: 50 months
19 Non-flow attrition until start of final flow group with an even reduction in senior attrition until flow date: 54+21=75 months
19 Non-flow attrition until start of final flow group with a gradual reduction in senior attrition to 0 over 2 years: 67+21= 88 months
So assuming no drastic changes in the industry flow for a new hire will be somewhere between 5 and 7 years. With hiring predicted to continue increasing across the industry as we get into the years of the highest mandatory retirements in early/mid 2020's there's a good chance that attrition will increase so I'd say 6 or so years is a good estimate. Having said that, we have a lot of pilots (mostly older RTP people with a full military retirement) who don't have the drive to move up like those of us in our first career and are content to sit here at Envoy despite our less than amazing pay. So who knows.
Of course, this is the airline industry and if you look at how things were at Eaglevoy 6 years ago you'll be reminded of just how much can change. Meger with another wholly owned, flow adjustment as part of contract negotiations, major pilot shortage at AA, economic downturn, fuel price spike, ect. could all drastically alter time to flow.