Attrition outside of flow and retirements for the vast majority of pilots after they arrive on property will be below them in seniority and ever decreasing until they flow. Those numbers should remain about the same. However, in my opinion, any attrition above said pilot will continue to decrease as flow times decrease. Using historical numbers for 12+ to 8 year pilots going to other airlines will not equal the number of 4 or 5 year pilots above you going to a major. They are less qualified and less likely to get a call, and also less likely to jump to an LCC which so little time left to flow. The company bases its projections on these historical numbers and that is enough justification for new hires who aren’t 100% in touch with the way seniority lists work or are not in touch with the hiring climate. How many people come here spouting off about you should be at the major of your choice in half the time of the flow, yet that has been said for the last decade and check airman with 12 years and clean records are not getting a call? A new hire should come here seeing a 9 year flow on a spreadsheet and being surprised when he or she flows at 7.5 years. If you come here expecting 5.5 - 6, you will have no one to blame but yourself, because the company will not be held accountable.