Originally Posted by
pitchattitude
And that’s why dollars in hand now are more important than flow in the future.
Originally Posted by
MD-11Loader
And when AAG goes bankrupt and stops hiring? What’s your plan then?
Originally Posted by
29Eleven
If that happens in the next decade then we’re all screwed, now aren’t we?
Not "If", it's "When", and anyone who thinks they will be flowing a year from now or later is horribly mistaken.
For anyone who knows anything about Eastern Airlines, and how one of the oldest, greatest airlines in the world was brought to its knees, you will see that AA is on the exact same path.
DP is PLANNING on taking this company BK, not by error or malfeasance, but by meticulous, step-by-step planning, following the playbook written by Frank Lorenzo, to the letter. Lorenzo made some errors in the process, but DP knows what landmines to avoid now.
Why do you think AA's BODs was handpicked by DP? Why do you think they have not ousted him? Why do you think the shareholders have not revolted and demanded his departure despite horrible stock performance during the greatest bull market, ever? It's because they know THE PLAN.
Why did DP sell nearly EVERY SINGLE SHARE of AA stock he ever owned, other that what he is legally required to hold? How did he know to sell it ALL at its HIGHEST PRICE?
Nearly 1/3, yes 1/3, of pilots on the AA seniority list have not touched an airplane in over a year.
Nearly 1/3 of AA aircraft are SCHEDULED to go away over the next couple of years.
Coincidence? Hardly. The airplanes leaving is nothing secret. It's all been buried in the corporate filings for anyone who has bothered to look.
AA has taken on HUGE debt buying new airplanes and expanding infrastructure.
AA has HUGE retirement liabilities.
AA has HUGE contractual liabilities.
Guess what happens when you go BK? The courts will wipe out the pension plans, renegotiate all the contracts, including anything APA might be able to negotiate ahead of time, AA will be free to tear up aircraft contracts and go with something cheaper and more efficient (can you say C-Series?), and so on.
So, after BK is declared, 1/3 of the airplanes are gone, AA furloughs 1/3 of the pilot group, and AA goes into negative growth for the foreseeable future, how do you think the prospects for your "flow" are going to look then?
This is THE PLAN, guys and gals. AA is just marking time until the economy takes it eventual cyclical downturn, so it can hold out for a sympathetic bankruptcy court.
Go find a good book about the downfall of Eastern. As you are reading, substitute "DP" for Frank Lorenzo, and substitute "AA" for Eastern. You will shiz yourself.
The flow is the last thing I came here for. Hopefully the same is true for you.
As quoted above, "And that’s why dollars in hand now are more important than flow in the future."
Ain't that the truth!