Originally Posted by
AAfng
I havent seen a true off the street civilian hired at AA who didnt have a relative working at AA as a pilot already. Unless you have a military background then I would count on the off street option.
There is a HUGE wave of retirements coming to AA in the next year or two and staying at a high level for 9 years. That flow time has to go down (correct me if I am wrong I believe it has been coming down here recently).
I worked at an ACMI carrier prior to AA and I could drive to CVG. Now I commute to AA. I just dont see any decent contracts coming to ACMI pilot groups because of the whipsaw factor. Costs at Atlas get too high then boom ABX gets the contracts. If ABX gets too pricey, boom, ATI gets the airplanes, ect, ect, forever. Just look up the history of DHL contracts over the last 15 years. If Amazon were to start their own cargo airline or buy one then OK I could see staying but barring that then you are hoping something changes at Atlas. Those retirements at AA, and the rest of the legacy carriers, are set in stone. Even if they raised the retirement age to 67 the retirements/people going out on medical is going to happen. Cant stop father time.
Since you've only been there a tad over 18 months that may not be the most accurate picture of street hires. I'm not saying that isn't your valid experience there, just that it may not be the big picture.
Several Check Airmen were recently hired from Envoy outside of the flow. AA is street hiring pilots that stand out from the crowd. Military, Check Airmen and a few of the friends and family plan.
10%-15% have been street hires from 2014-2016. That has gone up as the Envoy flow went from 61% back to closer to 50% of all new hires. I had a few cool graphs recruiting had made, but they are on the PC back home. A rough guess now would be closer to 23% off the street.
As for your whipsaw strategy, that doesn't explain Kalitta or Omni getting exceptional CBA's. In a pilot shortage, the old math doesn't work. Pilots are the new currency, not low contract bids.