You never know until you know. A year ago it was rumored that Republic was going to buy Compass and the rest of TSA.
https://theaircurrent.com/airlines/r...-trans-states/
That went away.
https://theaircurrent.com/airlines/t...is-near-death/
Six months ago everybody was saying that Gojet was road kill.
Think GoJet will lose the Delta flying?
Now they’ve got new flying coming, they are hiring like crazy, and giving big bonuses.
https://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/...gojet_airlines
The regional airline industry is like Brownian motion. It’s inherently unpredictable.
Realistically, it probably makes more sense for Delta to just renew. The bases and pilots are already in place, by the time you figure the costs of winding down the Delta flying at Compass and winding it up somewhere else, it probably makes economic sense to just renew, at least until Delta is ready to reclaim the flying at mainline with A220s, which is likely a couple years away.
But part of the game is to use some of the regionals to whipsaw the others. That is, to squeeze low prices from regional A by threatening to give (or actually giving) their existing flying to someone else.
It’s sort of a corporate game of chicken which is why the concept of a CAREER at a regional is so distasteful. You don’t really have stability until you are at a major and even then it can get...interesting.
Generally speaking, the two regionals considered to be the most “stable” are Skywest:
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/rat...-Of-Bankruptcy
And Republic:
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/rat...-Of-Bankruptcy
But like I said, the whole industry is Brownian Motion - basically smoke.