Originally Posted by
Southerner
My point is that you keep talking about "adding to the list" when others are talking about hiring. I understand exactly what you're saying, but that's not the first time you've come back to a hiring comment and started in about "adding to the list," as if their numbers are wrong because they aren't thinking like you do.
As far as that number goes, we would have to do some expansion to be able to hire that many. I think anything over 500 a year will seriously stress the system. And to your point, there would have to be a serious increase in airframes to justify hiring 3100 more, since our attrition is under 100 per year.
I use the "added to the list" number because it is the more relevant one for people evaluating career progression, for those who are at JB or about to go to JB. Most major airline attrition comes from the top of the list, or at least higher than a new hire. At JB, attrition is mostly 0-3 year guys. So by stating hiring numbers without context, it paints a false (or at least only partial) picture of seniority progression, which is why I state both. If Delta hires 400 people after they hire you, the expectation is that you have 400 people behind you, and either 400 people retired or there was slight growth. If JB hires 400 people, you really may only have 250-300 behind you with only a trickle of retirements (or otherwise senior people) leaving ahead of you. To address only hiring numbers without painting the full picture of seniority progression is not being fully transparent.
Furthermore, when talking about "hiring 3100" there needs to be context with regards to reality and what JB actually has on order. JB can't just go out and start taking delivery of 220s and 321NEOs ahead of schedule. What is listed in the delivery schedule is best case, and to assume hiring anymore than best case aircraft deliveries is delusional. Accounting for attrition actually helps get closer to that number as I pointed out. In conclusion, all I'm doing is stating factual information with regards to hiring, aircraft deliveries, and attrition, with realistic expectation management for anyone on, or soon to be on, the JB seniority list.
If you can debate any specifics in any of my posts, or say how any numbers I have provided are inaccurate, I'd love to hear. I love getting proven wrong and learning.