Originally Posted by
BeatNavy
I use the "added to the list" number because it is the more relevant one for people evaluating career progression, for those who are at JB or about to go to JB. Most major airline attrition comes from the top of the list, or at least higher than a new hire. At JB, attrition is mostly 0-3 year guys. So by stating hiring numbers without context, it paints a false (or at least only partial) picture of seniority progression, which is why I state both. If Delta hires 400 people after they hire you, the expectation is that you have 400 people behind you, and either 400 people retired or there was slight growth. If JB hires 400 people, you really may only have 250-300 behind you with only a trickle of retirements (or otherwise senior people) leaving ahead of you. To address only hiring numbers without painting the full picture of seniority progression is not being fully transparent.
Furthermore, when talking about "hiring 3100" there needs to be context with regards to reality and what JB actually has on order. JB can't just go out and start taking delivery of 220s and 321NEOs ahead of schedule. What is listed in the delivery schedule is best case, and to assume hiring anymore than best case aircraft deliveries is delusional. Accounting for attrition actually helps get closer to that number as I pointed out. In conclusion, all I'm doing is stating factual information with regards to hiring, aircraft deliveries, and attrition, with realistic expectation management for anyone on, or soon to be on, the JB seniority list.
If you can debate any specifics in any of my posts, or say how any numbers I have provided are inaccurate, I'd love to hear. I love getting proven wrong and learning.
I didn't say that the numbers are wrong. I think it just comes across poorly when someone says "we are hiring 500" and you say, "but only adding "425" to the list. From my perspective, I don't care how much is added because I was an instructor, and what mattered then was throughput of the schoolhouse, not how many stick around after training. I'm not an instructor anymore, but that perspective persists.
It's just a different perspective. As senior as you are, most attrition is below you, so hiring matters less than list growth. I get it. For a new hire, that churn at the 2-3 year point matters more than how much the list ultimately grows. (At least until they get senior enough for the people leaving to be junior to them).