Originally Posted by
PasserOGas
95 new aircraft is BEST CASE. Most likely some A320s will be retired. Also, this place has been deferring aircraft to improve short term profit margins. 95 aircraft is 33% in 6 years or around 4.5%/year (compounding). JetBlue deferments are a near certainty so knock off around 1.5% for our slowing growth trajectory.
Best case 4.5%. If you plan on best case with JetBlue you will regret it. In any case 3000 pilots will not be below you in 5 years.
If we hire 3000 it will be because 2000 moved on to real airlines.
With an average attrition over the past 5 years of 84, it would take about 23.8 years to achieve your projection of 2000 losses.