Spot on. Your point about lost compound interest on earnings early on in the game is also a player. Doing nearly back to back first-years put me on the wrong side of the cash flow equation for nearly 3 straight years and due to a variety of life events, resulted in expending about $80k that should have remained in long term investments or at least a down payment for my next house. Instead of going cash flow positive in my 3rd year after mil retirement, I'm barely breaking even. I'm not complaining since it's because of very deliberate choices on where to live and what optional expenses to accept (youth hockey is stupidly expensive), but I'd be 1-2 years ahead already on my kid's college fund by now if I'd stayed at Spirit. That's a cost I accepted when I switched companies and while I don't regret it, I think it's a reasonable thing to discuss because there are plenty of other people making the same calculations and trying to decide what is "best". If you're on your third wife or have kids just starting college, "best" may not be a reset to first year salary and a 10 year upgrade. On the flip side, a guy who already upgraded at Spirit but who is comparatively young might very well have enough years remaining to be willing to try something new because they'll be at it long enough for it to pay off.

Thats part of the reasoning that led me to give up widebody flying as a career goal. I just don't think I'll be doing this long enough for that path to give me the overall QOL I can get at a NB only company, even one where I'll never break into the top 30% seniority. Totally different story if I had 20-30 years remaining, but with 18ish left I couldn't see myself ever getting enough seniority to have much control of my schedule QOL. Maybe I gave it up too soon, but I did spend a lot of time thinking about it and I think I made the right choice for me and my family.

A thought - 2 of the happiest guys I went through class with were guys who will never upgrade. Too old, they'll be FOs until retirement. One probably couldn't upgrade even if mandatory retirement gets boosted to 70. Both felt blessed just to be there and they worked as hard as everyone else to get their type and get through IOE. Talking to those guys helped me gain some perspective and helped me define what "best" meant to me, just as much as chatting with an unusually young Spirit CA did. Very informative hearing their stories and ideas about what makes up a good flying career.