Qotsaautopilot

Airline captains are in the top 10% for annual income in this country. Sure there is a stratospheric difference between the top 1% and 10%.
That notwithstanding let’s assume you have a family of four. Would you (making an assumption on seat) as person in the top 10% of income in this country taking your family of four on vacation choose to buy tickets on Spirit or Frontier and save $800 or buy tickets on a legacy in regular couch for $800 more with the same schedule?

Now let’s assume you are some part of the other 90% of the population that may be able to travel by air. Same family of four and you’ve been saving all year to go to Myrtle beach and eat fried butter, or visit grandma in Ft Myers, or take the kids to Disney for the best three days of their lives. Which ticket are you buying?

Now let’s assume you are broke 20 something and your 10th BFF in a row thinks it will be super original to more fun than the last 9 friends to have their bachelorette party in LAS, MSY, BNA, CUN. Which ticket are you buying?

Let’s assume you are WT or ghetto and have zero business buying plane tickets but your life’s dream is to get one of those yard long alcohol cups to carry home from LAS, MSY, BNA, CUN to place proudly next to your rented flat screen. So by golly you are gonna slap some plastic down and book some tickets. Which ticket are you buying?

Yes there is plenty of market for 600 spirit planes.

Now the other 5-9% of income above us have more money than the other 91-95% of the population combined. They fly more, spend more per seat mile, and keep the big 5 in business. They are more high maintenance and in SOME cases more civil. They also require amenities to get and keep their business. More dollars but a whole lot less people spending them. Spirit and frontier are in the volume business. Less dollars per person but a lot more people spending them. 5-10% of population flying 5-10 times a year supports 3000+ planes. 70% of the population flying once a year or once every other year can support a lot more than 600 ULCC planes.

As the middle class shrinks even in a good economy due to the widening income gap, globalization, and the decline of unionism the ULCC market grows more. Do you see more people coming out of college with massive debt getting great paying jobs or becoming baristas? I see baristas. I also see great paying jobs that now are only good paying jobs. Can you say airline pilot? The ULCC model is not what the consumer really wants it’s what they can afford.