Actually, the shortage is very real for a number of reasons.
The first was due to the 1500 hour rule. It created a gap in available labor. Each year a number of pilots would reach 250 hours either through college or on their own. The regional airlines - which historically hired at around 2500-4000 hours to fly Beech 1900’s had been chipping away at wages, benefits and working conditions causing fewer and fewer pilots to enter as a profession. As the compensation lowered so did the entry requirements until they were essentially hiring ink wet brand new commercial pilots into fairly large transport category regional jets as their first job since flying Skyhawks and archers. This only lasted a few years... basically 2006-2011. Historically it had always taken considerably more hours before being hired to fly jets at a part 121 airline. An accident in 2009 drew national attention to how low the experience level had dropped to and legislation changed the requirements to obtain an ATP which now requires additional experience and more specialized training than it previously did. They also changed the 121 reg from requiring CMEL for a First Officer to requiring an ATP. What we all call the 1500 hour rule is more accurately described as the ATP rule since the ATP is what is required and it may be obtained at various total hours.
When the ATP rule went into effect it created a 4 year dry spell. We are now back to where we were before with a fresh supply of eligible pilots being produced each year.
That shortage - and the current one - were caused by the low wages, low benefits and poor working conditions keeping otherwise eligible pilots from taking those jobs. As wages, benefits and working conditions improved pilots returned to accept those jobs.
So where is the shortage now then?
From a legal standpoint with age 65, 41% of all active commercial pilots retire in the next 10 years. Over the past 3 decades there has been a 30% decline in licensed pilots according to the FAA. Boeing forecasts that there will be a need for 790,000 new pilots from now to 2037. That’s an average of 43,888 needed each year globally. The US major airline retirements over the next 10 years is over 30,000. That’s 3,000 a year.
Will the Delta, United, American, UPS, Fedex ever have a pilot shortage, no. But every other job under them will feel the pinch in various ways. To get those few legacy jobs you’ll still have to differentiate yourself from the thousands applying to get in. Hardest hit will be the regionals and smaller charter outfits. LCC will see significant pay, benefit and working condition improvements to keep their pilots from leaving to the legacy jobs. This will - and already is - making places like JetBlue, Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Kalitta & Omni very viable career alternatives. This trend will only continue. Last will be regionals. They will expand their preferential hiring and flow through programs with their mainline partners rather than increase wages and working conditions. Eventually they’ll be forced to, but that’s still a while away and with planes like the A220 much of the profitable longer regional flying routes will be pulled back in house to mainline to allow the regionals to shrink without cancellations.
There Ends my crystal ball.... for now
Some reference
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/co...commerce-world