One small correction: on one *specific* bid it closed around 10,800 and hasn’t come close since. That bid was a bit of anomaly, it was absolutely humongous and occurred after three previous very large bids.

I definitely think captain will go more junior this winter, but it will take a few large bids to get there and as previously stated, I think you will see less bypassing as it gets down into the mid/late ‘15 and ‘16 hires. I have everything to gain from it going junior, but keep in mind that if a bunch of junior people take the award, it makes the seat more desirable/acceptable in the next bid for (line holder only bids) seniors

To the OP: if your goal is specifically LAX, I would choose American. Although I think united cockpit culture is definitely better on the whole, I would say LAX is one of our more vulnerable hubs. We have a huge hub in San Francisco and if the economy really turns, I would expect to see way less aggressive expansion in LA in favor of our fortress hub up north. American is the largest carrier in LA and I do not see them having any desire to cede that position to United or Delta.... The only caveat being, Parker scaled way back in New York in favor of being the big fish in a little pond at Philly. It is possible he would do that in Phoenix, however I believe the southwest presence there prevents that to some extent.

Bottom line, with the amount of retirements coming in the next 15 years, a career at either AA or UAL is going to depend more on your overall attitude and enjoyment of the lifestyle than it will on the airline specifics