Originally Posted by
Itsajob
There are a ton of retirements on the horizon, but the number of replacements isn’t a static list. There is a kid out there with a brand new drivers license who could be a competitive applicant at the legacies in 10 years. The business plan could alter demand for pilots as well. Increased passenger loads could lead to reduced frequency on larger planes, affecting the demand for crews. I don’t think that the sky is falling by any means, but there has never been a better time to be starting out than right now. Of course, compared to what we just came out of, everything looks good.
Exactly. It’s not as if no one else is going to become a pilot in the next decade and it’s a finite list of pilots to backfill the retirements. You make some other great points above too. Just a small example, the USAF is trying to up it’s pilot production from about a 1000 a year to 1500. In a decade, all those “extra” guys will start being at their ADP (airline decision point) too. If The industry remains stable and pay is good, people will invest time and $$$ to become pilots and there will be no “dire” shortage.