Originally Posted by
AncientAliens
Way too many variables to consider, of course the main one being the state of the economy in the coming years. Some are of the opinion the ULCC model is recession proof. There may be a grain of truth to that but the airline industry in general is volatile so we will never know how F9 will weather the storm until the music stops playing.
If you are looking for explosive growth from a seniority perspective, you can’t beat the legacies. They will have close to 50% turnover in the next decade without a single additional airplane on property just due to retirements. Frontier has a relatively young pilot group, with maybe 1 or 2 retirements a month being the average.
I would be surprised if we reached anything close to those ac numbers in that time frame. The only businesses that are recession proof are mortuaries, hospitals, and bars. We’re in a better position to withstand a recession than last time. But to believe we’re going to continue to grow that fast in an economic downturn is naive. Not to mention a merger or buyout before then. I hope I’m wrong.