Originally Posted by
hydrostream
I’d say the risk is relatively low compared to the nightmare scenarios these guys are talking about. Take the time with your family, go into training with a clear head and you’ll be better set up for success. The bigger threat is being distracted during training. If your airline has good movement it’s maybe going to cost you a month or two of something you don’t want. That’s a small price to pay for making memories with your family. For every guy that missed an opportunity by one number there are hundreds that made it or missed it by a mile.
I agree. While the safest bet might be to take the earliest class... you sort of have to hope for another downswing in hiring or taking the earliest class will be pointless. If hiring continues at its current pace it’s not going to matter if you start class now or 6 months from now. The time it takes to hold a line, upgrade, etc. will be the same either way.
I value the time I spend with family more than taking a chance that an earlier class date will really only pay off if there’s another economic down turn. While that’s very possible, the flip side would be... I would hate to be a senior regional captain making 120k-150k a year, get picked up by a major, economy crashes while you’re still junior, then you’re furloughed on the street when no one is hiring. Where if you started later you’d still be a regional captain making 120k-150k. Best case you keep your job at the major, but you’re stuck on reserve for 5 years. Some guys don’t mind reserve but I hated it. Reserve sucks even more if you’re junior. If someone told me I’d be on reserve for 5 years making 200k at a major it wouldn’t be worth it to me. I’d rather be stuck as a regional captain choosing when I fly and knowing my schedule. Bigger paychecks don’t change the fact that your QOL will suck and you’ll have no family life.
In the end it’s a crapshoot. Again, the only way an earlier class actually pays off is if there’s an actual downturn in hiring. And even then, it could work in your favor or it could work against you. IMO, your seniority and how it plays out is just luck of the draw. Me personally, I would try to spend as much time as I can with my family. They’re more important than any paycheck. Regionals pay an actual livable wage now.