Originally Posted by jamesholzhauer

There were a whopping 5 320FO to 190FOs on the last bid (2 bos, 1 jfk, and 2 mco). 4 of those 5 were bid back to original position so they weren’t really even 320 FOs. The other was MGMT so he doesn’t count either. Zero on the bid before that (March), and 3 on the bid before that (December) which I can’t see if they were actual 320 FOs or 190 FOs bidding back to original position 190 guys. In comparison I counted 20 190FO to 320FO on the last bid, 34 on the one before that (March), and 44 on the one before that (December). Also consider that’s at most 3/1500 320 FOs going to 190 FO, and ~100/450 190 FOs going to 320 FO...in a 9 month period.

So in general I’d say people aren’t banging down the doors trying to fly the 190 coming from the bus, and the fact that you had 2 in a row is not representative of the trends (maybe your relative seniorities align for trips). It appears it’s about a 30:1 ratio of 190 to 320 vs 320 to 190, assuming those 3 from 3 bids ago were actually 320 FOs going to 190FO. And in a 9 month period that’s ~100 190 training events required. I don’t have the bid saved from September so I can’t get data on that, but extrapolated out, its about 130 190 to 320 FO transitions...almost 30% of the 190 FO population per year. Guess Aug bid will paint a pretty good picture of what can be expected next year.

*disclaimer: I looked at the lists on my phone fairly quickly, they could be off by a small amount, but I think it’s pretty accurate. And I did all the math quickly and I’m tired so perhaps I’m missing something but that’s the best forward looking info my crystal ball has.

Edited because I realized the 5 guys I originally mentioned weren’t even 320FOs.