Originally Posted by Excargodog

Then you are just as wrong as he is. Let’s make this simple. Compare an AA 30 year old New Hire to an AA 45 year old new hire.

Cost of type-rating both is $15k. Assume both will upgrade in 10 years. Assume both will stay in the 737 or it’s equivalent throughout their career. Over the next 10 years both will make (at current year FO 737 rates) $1.897 million (counting 16% 401k). In the next 10 years, both will make equivalent money as a captain, to whit, an additional $3.22 million.

Average cost per year to pay the 45 year old who then retires has been $5.11 million divided by 20 or about 256,000 annually.

But the younger guy goes on for another 15 years, collecting another $4.83 million, making his total $9.94 million for 35 years, or 284,000 a year.

Over the course of his career, the 45 year old will save you $28K a year for 20 years or $560K compared to the guy hired at 30 because he will have spent a larger proportion of his career both as an FO AND at the low end of the pay scale.

Yeah, you’ll have to hire two guys to get the same number of years, but there is no shortage of qualified applicants at the major, and a type rating only costs about $15K, and the yearly pay will still be lower for the second guy. And the greater the age disparity, the more they save by hiring the old codger.

Which the mainline knows, which is why they will keep the flow times as long as they possibly can. Every year they drag out the flow makes personnel costs cheaper at mainline. They realize that, even if you don’t.

The purpose of flow is to keep pilots at the REGIONAL. They have no trouble keeping mainline staffed.