I think you're probably right. During the time I've been at Horizon, I've nearly been furloughed twice (which is still way better than being unemployed). Some of the guys/gals furloughed in 2009-2010 were gone for two years, and some of them got out of aviation entirely. We also had a bunch of new captains who got downgraded.

Usually, Horizon will offer time off without pay and leaves of absence prior to announcing furloughs. We had around 770 pilots on the property in 2008 and around 550 in 2011. Some quit, some were on voluntary leave, and some got furloughed. The guy that was my sim partner in new-hire training quit and went back to his previous (non-aviation) job.

When the economy started improving around 2012, we were suddenly short-staffed. The company was reluctant to recall pilots on furlough. As a result, we got further and further behind on staffing, which lead to a complete staffing meltdown in 2016-2017.

It's either "feast or famine" around here.