Originally Posted by jamesholzhauer

Apples, oranges, mobile, pharma, airlines...doesn’t matter the product/sector. What matters is the DOJ allows (or blocks) M&A to ensure (in its opinion) there is adequate competition in that sector so the consumer doesn’t get fleeced, and they just let a bigger industry that affects more people consolidate further than the US airline industry already is. The sector is mostly irrelevant. The new precedent set by allowing consolidation into 3 major cell carriers instead of 4, with minimal divestiture, kills the argument for blocking any airline mergers. The only argument that still exists is that certain markets would have less/no competition, but that doesn’t hold much water because NY will still be served by the big 4, and there are plenty of routes/destinations that exist with no competition as it is. And in the specific case of UAL/JB, there isn’t a whole lot of route overlap anyway (and where there is, there are other players as well), so the argument that it’s taking away competition isn’t that strong.

Guess time will tell. Not saying it will be UAL or JB or anyone specific, but I’d bet in the next year or so we will see a new wave of consolidation in the airlines.