When I did the combined retirement math for the 10 yr timeframe from 2018-2027 it was ~620. And the next 10 yr frame from 2028-2037 was ~850. Today we have a little over 3,000 total pilots.
No matter which way you skin the cat, the reality is you will not have quick movement here. That being said, upgrade to CA here doesn’t mean you have to be half way up the list. Reserve rules here are horrendous so the most junior upgrade went to a 2,9xx guy out of 3,000 total (hired Jan 2015). If you’re hired today it’s still gonna be a while.