Upgrades will be bid by FOs senior to the ones who got the quickest upgrade on the last bid. There are a lot of FOs on the list who could hold captain but will not because it would mean commuting to years on reserve, given the current upgrade environment.
This means that upgrade times won't go down quite as quickly; metrics such as the number of FOs behind the juniormost captain and their dates of hire don't take into account hundreds of FOs (some hired in 2000) who can bid for upgrade. Right?