Originally Posted by wjcandee

That's a good example of how to lie with statistics. The lack of Amazon blew a huge hole in FedEx Expess volume, as it now will with ground. People at Express are already being laid off, working reduced hours, etc. Ground is an independent contractor model, and all those folks who invested in trucks, etc., are going to have a very sad year.

FedEx was the most-expensive ground and express option for Amazon. Amazon will expand the use of other providers and organic delivery, who will be happy for the business. FedEx has to pray that e-commerce continues to expand and that in the next 3-5 years, other shippers will take most of Amazon's place. (If there is a downturn, all bets are off.) Even with a decent amount of growth, it will be an okay time for the FedEx executives, and a tough time for the folks on the front line.

It will be interesting to see if FedEx will feel a need to change its fleet plans and/or its air network operations due to the substantially-lower volume, or whether it will try to fly the same routes with the same metal for a couple of years until they are able to replace the volume (if they are able to replace the volume). Or maybe they will cut prices dramatically to fuel volume (as they have done with their slowest Express service to their biggest customers to move Ground volume to the Express division to mask the size of the volume loss). If they do that, though, what was the point of the exercise?

At the end of the day, this is only going to slow FedEx Express's need for planes and pilots. How much remains to be seen, but if the effect on the ground-handling, sorting, drivers, etc., is any indication, it's not good.

So while some on here who hate Amazon are cheering, those who want the music to keep playing as pilots move up the ladder should be nervous. Slowing movement to the top tier pilot jobs at FedEx actually hurts all the people who are cheering because they think this somehow hurts Amazon, which it doesn't.