Originally Posted by
baseball
6. Is Kirby winning?
Currently, I think yes. Maybe I'm giving him too much credit, but here's what I think his strategy looks like:
1. Offer the union early openers, with the express goal achieving an on-time contract (carrot). Both sides sign the legally-binding Negotiating Protocol Agreement. There's no penalty or negative consequence if the goal of an on-time contract is not achieved.
"The Parties intend to negotiate, conclude and execute an amended UPA no later than December 1, 2018, taking into account the period of time necessary for completing all information sharing, bargaining, contract language changes, and each party's internal approval and ratification processes. (from the Negotiating Protocol Agreement)"
"In accordance with the Negotiating Protocol signed on November 14, 2017, we intend to reach and implement a ratified agreement before December 1, 2018."
(from the ALPA Section 6 Opening Letter)
2. As a condition of early openers, include in the NPA a virtual gag order on the Union, hampering their ability to say much of anything about negotiations, and certainly nothing negative.
"Public communications regarding negotiations will be issued consistent with the spirit and intent of cooperative labor relations. The parties will maintain a professional, respectful tone and avoid communications that denigrate or contain derogatory language about the other party or any individual. To promote these negotiations, United and ALPA will maintain confidentiality regarding the proposals exchanged and discussions at the bargaining table."
(from the Negotiating Protocol Agreement)
3. Appear reasonable by making slow progress on key sections of the contract (sections 5 and 20). Negotiations take time. The amendable date passes and we don't have an agreement. Get Sections 5 and 20 wrapped up six months or so after the amendable date.
4. Demand concessions in Section 1 before any of the economic sections (3, 22 and 24) can be addressed.
"Management has also said that Section 1 discussions must take place before they are willing to address the improvements we seek in the areas of Compensation, Retirement, and Insurance."
(from NC update on 2/2/19)
5. Appear reasonable by doing a month (or whatever) of Interest-Based Bargaining on Section 1. Kill time during the summer and enjoy the fact that this month of IBB has no ramifications on negotiations and nobody can talk about it.
Neither side made any formal proposals regarding changes to Section 1 during this time. As required by the IBB process, the discussions are confidential and do not prejudice any positions the parties have taken in the past, or may take in the future, regarding potential changes to Section 1.
(from the NC update on 7/31/19)
6. Wait for the predictable stalemate to happen:
[W]e have not yet found enough common ground beyond a mutual interest in the long-term success of United Airlines and its pilots.
and
[W]e do not expect to have anything further to report on the rest of the UPA until we find a breakthrough to Section 1.
(both quotes from the NC update on 7/31/19)
7. Sit back and enjoy the silence while negotiations stagnate. If the union starts to saber-rattle or talk about Section 1, accuse them of violating the terms of the NPA or IBB.
8. When the NMB finally gets involved, point to the progress you made on Section 5 and 20 as evidence of your bona fides.
9. Slow-walk through several more years of mediation.
The good news is that we have time on our side. I'm happy to wait for the right agreement, though I suspect it's going to be quite a while.