Originally Posted by jamesholzhauer

Anyone "hired" means they got on the list (ie showed up to class), not just received a job offer. So JB could offer 1,000 job offers/class dates, but until they show up they aren't "hired." So the 400-500 is those who make it to the seniority list and start class. Attrition is usually around 75-95 a year. We are on track to lose about 82 this year. Of those, 15ish are retirements. Last few years, retirements have been around 15-20 annually. Looking forward, 2020 has 27 retirements, 2021 29, 2022 35, 2023 46, 2025 73, 2026 61, then low triple digits every year after that. So our annual attrition will go up over the next few years due to retirements, and I'd imagine some will continue to leave for the big 6. In 2018, 90 people left. 21 of those were retirements, 7 died, a few random things (medical, terminated, took non-flying jobs not at JB, etc), 30 went to other airlines (that I have data for), and 27 of those 90 I have no data for, so could have been a number of things. This year, 53 have left...I only have data on half. Of the 27 I have data for, 14 went to other airlines, 9 retired, 3 died, and 1 went to work at flight safety. No idea about the other 26.

So if we hire 500, we can plan on adding 400ish to the seniority list, which is mostly for growth, but it also incorporates a need for higher staffing requirements due to the CBA rules (work rules and vacation distribution/allocation/rules). This year JB is taking 6 new airplanes (1 delivered and about to start revenue service in a few weeks, the other 5 are yet to be delivered). So we need growth pilots to cover those. We have roughly 15.7 pilots per plane currently. We have firm orders For 84 remaining A321NEO variants (13 LR, 13 XLR, the rest regular NEOs), and 70 A220s, for deliveries through 2025 (perhaps a few or more frames will slip to 2026), and we are supposed to retire all 60 E190s as the A220s come online. So, napkin math: 94 net planes to be delivered, at 15.7 pilots per plane (though the ratio will likely go up since the A220 will have higher utilization and need more pilots, the LR/XLR will need heavier staffing needs due to augmentation and a separate crew base within a base, and having 3 fleets will drive a higher overall staffing ratio, but I'll assume current ratio for simplicity), is a net gain of roughly 1500 pilots by the end of 2025. With 288 retirements between now and then, plus other attrition, that's roughly 2,000 pilots that need to be hired (probably more, as I think attrition will be a little higher and I think the staffing ratio will have to continue to go up).

You could also argue our past attrition won't reflect future attrition due to the CBA being in place now, but I think people will still leave in years 0-4 at the same rate they are now, simply because of the retirements, better CBAs, better network, better base options at the big 6. Personally, I think we will trend to 100-150 a year attrition thru 2026, then 150-250 a year beyond that. So hiring will cover mostly growth, but certainly some attrition.

To answer your question about who is leaving, this year, 8 2019 hires have left, 17 from 2018, 5 from 2017, 2 from 2016, 7 from 2015, and a few from various years above that. Last year 37 of the 90 that left were from the first 3 years, 15 from years 4-5, and then scattered above that. 2017 and earlier is basically the same trend. 0-3 years seems to be by far the most, a few from years 4-5, and then a smattering of guys above that.

I have an opportunity cost spreadsheet that uses various assumptions (upgrade times, WB pay, overall higher pay scale, higher PS) for leaving and starting over at a legacy. My crossover point at which leaving is financially worth it (which assumes JB never gets WBs nor compensation/PS commensurate with legacies), is very far away, and it (currently) isn't worth it. Had I left in years 0/1/2 it probably would have been. Everybody has a unique situation and the math isn't the same for everyone. But overall, after a few years here, it gets a lot harder to start over at the bottom of a list, even with all the retirements on the horizon elsewhere. The guys hired a few days ago (so guys currently at say 3996 on the list), with just the firm growth and current staffing ratio, will be 72% in the company by the end of 2024, and 50% in the company by 2031. That could all change with aircraft delivery delays/deferrals (pretty standard at JB in the last few years it seems), a downturn, parking older planes early, mergers/acquisitions, or a number of other events. Legacies could not grow at all, or even shrink, and decent seniority progression will likely still happen there due to retirements...our seniority progression is based heavily on growth, which imo drives some of our 0-3 year attrition.

That's the long answer to some of your questions. Hope it helps. Good luck.