In general you can expect to spend 3-6 months on reserve upon arriving at a base as a junior FO. This means from the time you start training until you're holding a line could be 6-12 months, just depending on any delays in training (they're minimal right now except for a 2-4 week delay to start OE).

The numbers aren't necessarily applicable for the most senior bases like MIA (current junior lineholder is a 7/10/18 hire) and IAH (current junior lineholder is an 8/7/18 hire).

Predicting what it's going to look like years from now has too many factors to be able to provide any meaningful guess, and has almost entirely to do with how much flying we retain/if we get additional flying. If we retain a lot and get additional flying, they'll go down. If not, they'll stay where they're at or go up. Speaking very generally, the shortage, at the regional level, should equate to fewer stagnation and more overall movement thereby keeping reserve times lower. Again, this is a very general statement and specific changes can and will affect that at every regional.

We're currently "understaffed" as a whole compared to where we'd like to be, but not as bad as some other regionals. As long as people continue to move on and we keep hiring like we have been, reserve times here should be no worse than they are anywhere else. It's just a fact of life that airlines, in order to run an efficient operation and be able to recover from IRROPS, need reserves.