Originally Posted by
KnockKnock
How do you define a trend? In the 4+ years I’ve been here it’s “trended” down from 12 to 4 years. In the last 2 years, it’s gone from 5 to 4 years. All things being equal, the same percentage of those who bypass will continue to bypass. If the upgrade is hovering around 4 years during a period of .02% growth, I would think that trend would continue in the upcoming .04% growth year/s.
In the 4+ years you have been here age 65 got into full swing and Alaska has had unprecedented growth because of their reaction to Delta's growth in Seattle. We've also merged with another airline which has bases that most of the ANC and SEA pilots would compare to Mogadishu.
Now that we've settled into the usual 3% growth per year that AAG feels comfortable with, I'd say that its a trend if the upgrade stays at 4 years for longer than 1 year.