2016 guys will flow in 4.8 to 5.5 year then it goes up to around 9 for a current new hire, but that’s using low attrition. The big question is going to be how many CAs are hired off the street to AA or other majors. Looking at hiring needs between now and 2023 that could be as many, or more than flow each year. A person senior to you taking a job has the same effect on the flow.

The big question for pilots wanting American is “are the AA recruiters telling the truth”. They say if you what to be AA, go to a WO. Envoy is syncing everything in training up with AA. Does that mean anything? Maybe not, but it could mean AA is going to use the WO as the minor leagues to get known quantities in their pipeline. If they know a WO pilot can make it through a program structured similar as theirs and the training cost and washouts are incurred at the WO instead of AA, that’s a huge money savings and honestly a novel concept.