Originally Posted by
Bluedriver
Good info.
I was asking about the trend line within 2019. Classes are getting smaller, not bigger. See my post from a minute ago above this one.
In 2014 we hired 10/16 in Aug/Sep, then 45 in Oct, 35 in November, and 23 in December. In 2015 it was 18/5 for Aug/Sep, then 36/32/32 for Oct/Nov/Dec. The monthly trends are all over the place for all years, but summer (including Sept) slow months aren't generally indicative of much, since Oct-Dec has, in many years, been a large uptick, regardless of low Aug/Sep numbers.
I'm not saying Oct-Dec will necessarily be high (I don't have hiring plans other than what the propaganda machine spits out at OSC), but I am saying that past data doesn't necessarily support lowered Oct-Dec hiring based off of lower Aug/Sep class size.
TL;DR: a monthly trend line in JB hiring is useless to predict future class sizes.