The 9.3 years assumes no non-flow attrition but also assumes American takes the max from Envoy every single month*. There are months from time to time where American doesn't hire anyone so no flow at all for those months so that needs to be considered. Some like to figure the non-flow attrition like it comes off the top of the list but it doesn't. Most of those are recent hires that either just need to get current to get hired elsewhere, or wash out, or decide this life isn't for them, or whatever. The reality is that most guys that need real time here to be competitive elsewhere mostly just wait for flow. The result is very little of the non-flow attrition will effect your projected flow day and is generally a wash when you figure it against the non-flow months.

There is a lot of speculation that hiring will pick up and more people will not simply wait for flow given how the flow time is getting longer now. However, that's speculation. I do think there's SOME truth to that and flow time will be less than the union projection for someone hired today but I don't think it will be by a lot. My GUESS is around 8 years. It's really difficult to make sensible math out if it and get it much below that though. The 6 year projection by the company comes off like a straight up lie.



*There was a recent LOA that increases the max flow for a small group of pilots per month which will effect everyone downhill from that group by about 3.5 months. The latest interactive seniority list didn't update that part of the union projection for some reason so the projection should be 9 years instead of 9.3.