Originally Posted by
rickair7777
All the technology in the world cannot fully replace an incapacitated pilot, so single pilot is a very long way off. Technically possible does not mean safe, economical, insurable, or certifiable.
They would have to build a full auto system, and then fly it two pilot for a long time to demonstrate it's level of safety, and then go single pilot. Who's going to pay for that? Hint: Not airlines, they only buy planes with equipment which is regulatory or will provide an immediate and predictable cost savings. Management gets paid to enhance shareholder value by next quarter, not by next century.
Agreed, but we are talking about 15 years from now, plus Boeing and Airbus have already come out and said they have the technology for it. The implementation of new technologies such as 5g, AI, super computing etc will only speed up the process of making computers smart enough to do this, not to mention speed up communication between them. This would also allow for one pilot to be ground based, in charge of multiple aircraft while each plane has only one, the ground pilot only stepping in for emergencies or incapacitation.
To your point about pay, that same argument can be made for every technology that is introduced and it hasn't stopped them from developing it. If there is money to be made, or saved, it will happen.
I am firmly in the group that feels the pilots coming in now in their early 20's are the last true pilots we will see. If my children wanted to be pilots, I would strongly urge them not to solely because I feel there won't be a big need for them in 40 years.
All speculation of course, none of us know for sure how the tech will advance or what the future holds.