Originally Posted by
galaxy flyer
Anything’s possible, but there are hundreds or, more accurately, thousands of RJ pilots still waiting on the interview call at any major. Lots of talent out there. Then, the military pilots and waiting on the sidelines heavy corporate pilots. I’d be leery of cries of pilot shortage.
GF
Shortage may too strong of a word as far as the better majors go.
But they will have to hire more, and they've already made deep withdrawals from the cream of the corporate crop and discretionary mil pilots (those who have the credentials and have completed their obligations, but chose non-airline paths). So future pilot supply is now limited to whatever the mil produces at steady state (their accumulator is now essentially empty), and whatever the GA pipeline and regional path can produce on the civilian side. IMO they have already about exhausted their surplus pool which was waiting in the wings and the retirements are nowhere near full stride yet.
There will better opportunities for new entrants (higher than normal odds of success at getting to a major). And if you do make it to the top tier, all but SWA have a lot of retirements, so your seniority will progress rapidly by historical standards.
So still some risk in the career, with no guarantee of a big-six job, but even so there's a trickle-down effect... since the big boys will be sucking up all the top candidates, almost anyone will be able to get on with lower tiers (most of whom don't have the mass retirements, so that's an entirely different career proposition).