Originally Posted by Gunter

Furlough a hollow threat?

No, it's not. Just because FedEx has dealt with slight overmanning over the years does not mean the sudden significant overmanning will be allowed.

You really can't be exact here as small changes are inevitable. But the trends are certain. The 727 SO seat has 100 more on the seniority list than the FO seat. You can easily get rid of the 50 bottom guys before anything else is considered (50 of the most senior SO's will probably upgrade to FO in the near future). You have to have a little excess in the SO seat to deal with change, but not 100. Don't even mention the overmanning in the 3 seats over and above that. If you were to raise the BLG 3 to 5 hrs and reduce the excess reserve lines, you could easily get rid of 30 more per seat. CAs could just be left in place, so call it 60 total. There are 40 of the most recent 200 hires in the FO seat, so it is not out of the realm of possibility to furlough the bottom 100-200 guys. This does not consider the overmanning in other aircraft right now. There is no place for the 727 FOs and 727 SOs to go, other than the over 60 guys, since overmanning exists in many seats fleet wide. I believe the kicker is the realization that hiring is not needed for 3 years. That makes a furlough the only way to relieve this overmanning for the next few YEARS. Very enticing for the company. No training events generated by pulling the trigger for the next 3 years.

Don't believe the 3 year estimate? About 5 Airbus temporarily taken out of service waiting or new engines. Accelerated DC10 conversion schedule. 757 program probably delayed. 727 drawdown probably continuing. 150 “newhires” on the property as of Dec 13th. 100-200 retirements per year canceled for the next 2-3 years. I personally think all the seats from new Airbus and MD11s coming are already spoken for by guys on the DC10 and in the back of the Boeing. The overage in the Boeing CA and FO seats will effectively will fill domestic 757 slots.

I believe the no hiring for 3 yrs estimate. Guys going out on medicals and the 777 bid can't overcome the larger trend. We should have been slightly undermanned for the 3 to 2 seat conversion years but instead we are overmanned. It is unusual for the company to do this sort of thing, correct me if I am wrong, so few believed it was happening. But now here we are.

The question now is whether the union and the company will leave the overmanning in place and reduce BLG or attempt to “fix it" with a furlough.


I'm scratching my head why the company is talking about putting newhires into FDA's if a furlough is around the corner. This part does not fit. But the hiring until we are significantly overmannd dosen't fit either. I also have trouble believing the company didn't see this coming. I have too many unanswered questions to have a decent guess on where all this is going.