Originally Posted by
GearDownFlaps15
We've been hearing rumors on our side (SWA) about Alaska, JetBlue, Spirit and Copa for a few years. In my opinion, not happening but odder things have happened in this industry. Plus I have a hard time believing that the DOT would allow it but just my $.02. The MAX will be back but I don't think that it will be as soon as the media and Boeing is making it out to be. I hope that I'm wrong though.
DOT has little to do with it, it's DOJ and FTC.
As to the political practicality of an airline merger...
1. Would it result in a merged entity significantly larger than DL or AA (this is a bit nebulous depending on whether you look at revenue or ASMs or even fleet count)?
2. Would it result in a significant monopoly at any big hub or regional market?
If the answer is no, it would likely pass muster with the current administration. #2 could be (and has been) addressed by divesting gates/slots to balance out competition.
Whether it makes business sense is of course a whole 'nother issue. But corporate leaders in general will assume that two smaller companies in the same business can generally achieve cost savings and efficiencies by merging.
I think AS could be acquired by SW, or merge with anyone smaller. I think they could be acquired by UA with west-coast divestitures (not saying that makes sense). Could maybe be acquired by DL, the merged entity would be bigger than AA but not that much bigger.