Originally Posted by
6ix9ineYearFlow
What, in your opinion, is the breakeven point for when it is worth it to stay at Envoy for the flow or one of the 'Big 6' versus leaving early for a low cost carrier? Is it worth it to leave with SIC time only or at least stay until 1,000 TPIC?
Additional Thoughts:
Hiring is going to be through the roof at the legacies next year and for years to come. Delta is hiring around 1,000+ pilots, AA is projected to be hiring 1,300+ pilots, United just came out and said they're hiring over 10,000+ pilots over the next decade. None of this is surprising, but things are starting to happen.
The [Ultra] Low Cost Carriers are becoming career destination airlines. Spirit & Frontier have really nice contracts that will likely get even bigger improvements in the next few years. Allegiant is due for a new contract soon. Even Sun Country will be looking at a new contract next year. Waiting around at Envoy for an AA flow is less and less attractive.
AA, as a company, is a mess and is getting hammered by some LCCs, particularly Spirit. It's going to be UGLY when the economy turns.
Waiting 7-9 years to flow for a new hire hardly seems worth it given their relatively seniority by the time they'd make it to mainline.
I do “mentorship” for the AA Cadet program. I only offer my 2 cents and my opinion is just that, a opinion. Take it for what it’s worth.
I’ll tell you what I’ve told each of them on the first day we’ve talked.
Your goal should be to beat the flow to your “final” airline. Even if it’s AA, you should always try to be maneuvering and strengthening your resume to get there before your flow date. The goal of the flow is not to staff mainline, just simply to act as a carrot to get you to one of the AAG regionals. It’s no different than pensions that were offered to the previous generation, as it is just a promise that will benefit some and since it was always under company control, was taken away when times changed and the company couldn’t afford to honor its commitment. Don’t think for a second that if crap really hits the fan that anything “contractual” like the flow can’t be altered, changed, or discontinued in the future, literally overnight.
If going to a LCC is either your end goal or you think a higher step up the ladder towards it, then go and don’t look back. Too much hiring for the foreseeable future to fall into the flow “trap”. That’s the whole point of it honestly. To get you on property and keep you there. For some, it works and is a great thing. For others, it works against you because it makes you second guess your choice to leave, which may just be the best thing for you.
Btw... no of these comments above should be construed as anything negative against flow-thrus. Everyone I have met is a great guy who I’d rather have voting on the next few contracts (they know exactly how shady AAG management is), than some of the older generation who seem to have given up and just want more $$$ before they leave, QWL be damned.