One full year of grounding is kinda ridiculous, considering we know it was because it was only linked up with one AOA sensor and then started to fire once that one sensor malfunctioned. That malfunction started a failure mode with a stick shaker on the CA side and erroneous speed/altitude values. We know now once the flaps came to 0, MCAS started to fire and would continue to do so with the malfunctioned AOA. Either pull the speed back and flaps to 1, or cut off those trim cutoff switches. Again we know this in hindsight.

The fix is simple, and Boeing has already said they will link MCAS to both AOA sensors. Both sensors would have to sense/read a high alpha value to get MCAS to operate. And once it does, it’ll fire one time with a limited amount of nose down trim. No more tug of war. In fact, if it was linked to both sensors, neither crash would have happened because MCAS wouldn’t have operated.

Now if we want to discuss Boeing’s coziness with the FAA, the FAA allowing too much reign at Boeing, should maybe reel them in, that’s all great discussion for future changes. But this one MCAS problem is fixable, Boeing is ready, and “testing” the fix is in November. There’s no reason to keep delaying the grounding once the fix is ready and implemented + tested by the feds.

As long as Trump leaves the tariffs on the Airbus and tariffs on China, the ungrounding of the MAX with EASA and CAAC can easily become political - not based on safety. I could see a case where the FAA is ready to lift the grounding, but other nation regulatory authorities say no. And if their nations build the Airbus and are benefiting, with very very little MAXes in Europe, why should they be in any hurry to lift a competitor when their own product has a tariff on it? Or they can simply say we want more time to study the Boeing fix and results. This IMO is why the industry is projecting lifting the MAX in Feb/March. Maybe even Q2. (That would suck). Ultimately, I don’t know if it’s a realistic goal to have one universal un-grounding of the MAX. One chosen date the whole world is okay with? All it takes is one nation to say no.


A319/320s don’t have a future here, the lease returns are happening. The future of dual fleet would be NEOs or go back to all 737s. Time will tell but Boeing will give $$$$ sale deals to sell the MAX en mass once it’s flying again. If we’re bettin’ in Vegas IMO we go back to an all Boeing fleet.