Originally Posted by
whalesurfer
I don’t think newhires need to worry about the possibility of a furlough. Just like Boiler said, there are numerous differences between what we see today and what we saw back then.
Having said that, I’d like to mention that we saw many pilots retire early (prior to 60) back then too. In fact, some of us junior guys and gals were amazed at how quickly we were moving up. The economy was good, we were getting more 76s and many captains were leaving at 58, 59, etc.
Then, seemingly overnight, pretty much ALL early retirements came to a screeching halt because the stock market dropped once recession had finally kicked in.
Point being, IF there’s a huge market drop you’ll see the very same trend - people will stick around for as long as they can. You won’t see a single person leave even a day early.
The other issue that truly ‘hurt’ all newhires back then was the age 65 retirement age change.
Passenger airlines didn’t have any flight engineers - we had hundreds. So while passenger airline pilots saw a major stagnation, we, junior pilots, saw massive regression in seniority and 109 of those junior pilots ended up losing their jobs, some of them for 4+ years.
Remember, age 65 rule meant that flight engineers who’re still under 65 could come back to the left seat displacing junior captains in those seat, who’d then displace junior FOs to flight engineers seats, who’d then displace junior flight engineers to ...them being furloughed.
The difference between now and then is that when age retirement changes again, and it will, to let’s say 68 (i.e. Japan scenario) everyone will see stagnation just the way passenger pilots saw back then. However, since we no longer have any flight engineers who can displace junior captains from their seats we’d see a stagnation but not a regression. A HUGE difference from back then.
If the economy gets so bad the company chooses to retire MD11s sooner than everyone anticipates and if they defer deliveries of airplanes already purchased - I’d say all bets are off.
Just don’t see that happening anytime soon....
So to answer your original question, I think new-hires should have very little to worry about. These are good times to be a newbie at any major airline.
So put in simple terms, between late 2000’s and early 2010’s, we had the absolute perfect storm of events. The worst recession since the mid 1900’s (near depression), extension of retirement age and many Flight engineers, and still, of course with the full help of Brown brothers and sisters, only (and not downplaying those who temporarily lost their job) 109 went unemployed, of course it could of been much worse, although many have told me the furlough was completely unnecessary.
The point is, to reiterate the points made, even if we enter a recession in the near future, EVERY economist is saying it is going to be nothing like we saw earlier this decade. The experts say we don’t remember what a normal recession looks like, which doesn’t impact the economy nearly as much.
As a relatively new guy, I would not hesitate again to come to UPS today. Nothing is guaranteed, but outlook for all aviation jobs looks good. Heck, even with Fedex’s recent speed bumps and their impending freeze (6-9 months is rumor), I would absolutely go there first chance if presented the offer.