Originally Posted by
Av8rRr
How much of the blue kool-aid do you drink? The 300 - 380 pilots they’re planning on hiring, half are because your pilots are leaving for other airlines. So I wouldn’t chalk it up as “growth” just yet. Unless you consider the E-175’s “growth.” Which I’m sure you do. Also, a single fleet clearly works great... Southwest isn’t hurting at all right now (sarcasm)
Alaska has the current order of Max aircraft, plus the new order:
Growth in seat mile is about 12 to 15 percent a year. Some of that growth is exchanging 319/320 for lager Max 9. Some is real aircraft growth. Average is about 12-14 aircraft a year of real airframe growth.
Call it:
60 for retirement and medicals
40 for moving on to greener pastures
165 for additional aircraft
35 to 80 for front load hiring needed to transition to single fleet.
I guess too much. Here is what I wrote you. These are real current numbers. 60 are coming right off the top. 165ish are current year growth and 40 are departures. (although real departure have only been in the mid 20’s, we plan on 40). Front side hiring could produce a lull in hiring for a year or so around 2024-2025. That’s real growth of about 900 pilots during the next 5 years.