Originally Posted by
MCDUmanipulator
Your assuming nobody by passes. Right now a Summer new hire is roughly 800 numbers from the most junior captain. If we continue to upgrade 25-30 a month that’s under 3 years.
Not that, I misread the invester report, for some reason had 2020 in my mind for start of deliveries instead of 2022, so should have been a 6 yr upgrade:
Before PBS upgrade was really steady at 55%RS. TBH haven’t delved really deep, but with the reserve QOL, it’s definitely possible more people bypass. So WAG upgrade drops to 60%RS, so a Jan 2022 new hire (#2400) needs 1600 below him, @ 16/aircraft = 100 deliveries, so end of 2027 = 6 years.
Pilots hired this summer numbers:
May hire #2150, needs another 1433, so 90 deliveries.
58 till 4Q21, @17/yr 2 more years, so 4 1/2 years.
You’re assuming people bypass forever, a good size of those 30/month upgrades go to pilots above the plug.