Originally Posted by
symbian simian
Not that, I misread the invester report, for some reason had 2020 in my mind for start of deliveries instead of 2022, so should have been a 6 yr upgrade:
Before PBS upgrade was really steady at 55%RS. TBH haven’t delved really deep, but with the reserve QOL, it’s definitely possible more people bypass. So WAG upgrade drops to 60%RS, so a Jan 2022 new hire (#2400) needs 1600 below him, @ 16/aircraft = 100 deliveries, so end of 2027 = 6 years.
Pilots hired this summer numbers:
May hire #2150, needs another 1433, so 90 deliveries.
58 till 4Q21, @17/yr 2 more years, so 4 1/2 years.
You’re assuming people bypass forever, a good size of those 30/month upgrades go to pilots above the plug.
Very much this.
Add to that at any time another event like a base opening (especially west of the Mississippi) could trigger a huge chunk of upgrade holdouts.
For posterity I would plan on needing to be at 50% for an upgrade and anything earlier to that is a gift.
Either way, the days of 2 year upgrades are long gone as this growth is steady, not exponential.
Bottom line today was great news and solidifies NK as a valid career choice for those recently hired.