Originally Posted by
RemoveB4flght
Very much this.
Add to that at any time another event like a base opening (especially west of the Mississippi) could trigger a huge chunk of upgrade holdouts.
For posterity I would plan on needing to be at 50% for an upgrade and anything earlier to that is a gift.
Either way, the days of 2 year upgrades are long gone as this growth is steady, not exponential.
Bottom line today was great news and solidifies NK as a valid career choice for those recently hired.
Sorry but 50% is not even close to an accurate number. Airlines carry more Captains than First Officers (They have more vacation, they are in the training department, they are in management, they are more likely to go out on leave etc etc). Add onto that the career right seaters, the other group who hold off upgrade to stay in domicile or to keep a better schedule and you find the most junior Captain usually somewhere in the low 60th percentile. The current award has the most junior Captain award right at 64%