Originally Posted by
wankel7
The pic sic ratio is soaring past 60/40. Why don't you think a downgrade situation couldn't happen?
Other than the fact it wouldn't happen to you?
Because of what’s on tap for the next two years in particular but also the next 10 years.
We’ll need every single one of those upgrades as fleet rationalization wraps up (in the next 4-5 years) and pilots bid up to larger equipment from the small cabin offerings they are currently holding.
Pilots are enjoying the FDP opportunities currently and many are hungry for more. While hiring is minimal for now, we are beginning a 10 year period of retirements from various segments of the seniority list as the average age most pilots historically retire is reached (65 is the average for medical issues on record with the FAA aeromedical division).
All this while the company is on track to accept 45 NET increase jets in 2020 on its goal of 500 total US based airframes within a few years from now.
We need those tremendous leadership and command skills developing as Captains, becoming even sharper in the Phenom and XL to either hold the torch or move on to larger fleets as seniority progression continues amid pilot retirements.
On top of that, the upgrades are the right thing to do. When NetJets chews through the 13 year SIC upgrades, that’s one piece of the equation that should positively affect recruitment.
Yes, the current PIC/SIC ratio is a bit too heavy... for very good reasons though. Retirements and growth over a period of years will rebalance the ratio. FDP effects (Open time) on traditional hiring patterns in aviation should dampen any blows a future recession (well after the next presidential election) might cause.