I concur with much of your analysis, with the added point that bringing a guy off an over-manned panel means no secondary to fill. My prediction: Net movement on most lists will be very small.
Losers: Guys close to upgrade who are now stuck just short of their goal. Guys (ahem!) who stayed on the N/B for Q of life and now may be locked out of a wide-body for some time. Guys excessed off the -10 to ANC who thought they'd not "really" have to go but could instead move back to MEM on the subsequent bid.
Winners. Back seat LCA. Still getting passover. Moving UP on the list--for the first time in about 3 years.