Originally Posted by
HerkDriver
Just thinking about how Posting 08-01 will play out, and wanted to throw this out for some general thoughts. (Let me preface this by saying that I'm not on a witch hunt, nor do I want to start an Over 60 bashing thread...just trying to think how I would react if over 60 and getting paid as an S/O).
There are 77 Capt positions open for Wide/Narrow Bodies when you only count MEM/LAX/ANC; we currently have over 150 Over 60 guys waiting to get back to the left seat. We have an additional 20 right seats open for the 75 in MEM, for a total of 97 seats with a view that don't require you to go to either CDG or HKG. ASSUMING that the majority of the Over 60 crowd would rather be paid as Capts or FO's, what is the likelihood that EVERY CONUS (& ANC) seat gets filled by an over 60 guy? I can't believe that if we are overmanned, the company would be willing to offer passover pay for the over 60 guys if they are still "young" enough to go through training (i.e. not within 18 months of turning 65). Does this sound plausible? (Sorry, too much MythBusters....)
To take it one step further, and say that maybe the company decides to have a few secondary vacancies filled, wouldn't those front seats even be likely targets for the Over 60 crowd as well?
Unless my assumptions about an Over 60 guy's desire to get back to a window seat (and a bigger pay rate) are way off, it wouldn't surprise me to see every MEM/LAX/ANC front seat filled in Posting 08-01 by an Over 60 crewmember. Thoughts?
If you don't mind, I'll give my shot here. First of all, the Over 60 guys have just won the lottery again> The first time was when they got hired here, the second tme was when they got a second chance to get back to the front seat. I won't go into the bashing, becasue not every guy over 60 petitioned Congress, bashed the young guys on ACP, or had virtually anythng to do with the law change. Kinda like the Senior Tour. It sucks that when Jack and Arnie were building the tour back in the 60's and 70's they played for a fraction of what the guys are today. Unfair, maybe. But you know what, sh1t happens.
I think the bid will play out just like the Company and Union wanted it to. All the sub 63 crew members get "their" seat back, the Company saves all that retirement money, the A fund is over funded now, and they fill a posting without really doing much and the Union gets it's "ethical" solution that was so important to DW. . I thought the FDA's wouldl be filled by new hires regardlesss of how good you made the LOA but with the stagnation now upon us, I think we'll see a lot of guys who were sitting on the fence and see a plumbers life ahead of them go to the FDA and suck it up.
I don't think all the over 60 guys will stay till 65. I think most of the guys who have 25 years at that point will go at 60 or so. They have planned for this time for years and realize that the longer you work, the less of Fred's money you'll spend after you retire. So assuming 60 per cent stay, you have a 2-3 year longer seat progression schedule.
I'm not sure all the guys in the back seat can even hold the left seat. I know for sure a few that are very junior FO's that are in the back seat. It would be curious to see those nubers, but I'm too lazy to do it.