Originally Posted by Elevation

Hello All,

I've been crunching safety numbers pretty hard. Atlas has some serious safety challenges, but it's not the quality of incoming pilots that is the problem.

The quality of pilots at the various Amazon contracting carriers doesn't vary as much as you think. Atlas has never made it to an average departures/accident in excess of 130000. This was the case when Atlas paid more than most places. Right now Atlas is around 84000 departures/accident.

To drive this point home ABX is performing more safely than Delta Airlines. The same pilot labor market pressures exist there. In fact, ABX was outperforming FedEx until 2013.

The real story of safety is more damning and less sexy. We are all variations on the same shade of average. The difference is training, safety and administrative infrastructure. None of us are good enough to think were able to out fly or out-command the threats that are building here.

The numbers also dont indicate better or worse pilots at different carriers. Fed Ex dramatically improved in performance in the early 2010s after implementing new programs. They had been a destination for many pilots for about ten years before that. It will take a real, coordinated effort to head off this coming accident at Atlas.

As for incendiary comments, I think it's entirely appropriate to discuss the facts. All of us are filing ASAPs, writing reports and joining safety organizations. No results are forthcoming.

Discussing the facts is appropriate. We haven't improved and we're proposing cuts to mx spending after we have already decreased departure and airframe specific maintenance spending by 33% over the last ten years.

I think another point worth considering is that the strain we're putting our system under for Amazon is exposing unrelated customers to risk. 3591 could have just as easily been an AMC flight with troops. The stresses are also materializing in our flights in Europe and Asia. In a real sense the push to staff cheap, domestic operations may be a factor when we crash in Taipei or Frankfurt.