Originally Posted by Buzzlightyear

I can’t help you with the when’s of when to sell. Nobody can consistently pick tops or bottoms. As a value investor I like to buy where there is value. Buying at double the long term Schiller PE makes no sense to me. I also look at the market cap to gdp to get a sense of valuation. Last fall we were 19% down from the top and that was right around where I would typically hunker down, get bearish and wait for a market drop. The Fed stepped in and we are at new highs. I wasn’t 100% invested since then and I missed some of this years run, again because I’m not comfortable at these nosebleed valuations. History tells us that a recession will come and a market pullback of 50-65% will come as well. That’s a run of the mill pullback. If there is a policy error along the way it will be worse.