Originally Posted by
Mrhr5b
My understanding is that seniority number is updated 1-2 times a year. Sequence is just how many people are in a particular list. (For example if you look at ca’s in Phl the sequence number tops out about 200 or so cause that’s how many Phl captains we have on the list. So while there are 705 pilots total in sequence the highest seniority number is around 780. If you go through every couple months and track sequence vs seniority you can see where people are leaving. (First six months, year 1, year 2, etc) As for a flow projection my way to do it is sequence and include those on leave, minus those that have flowed or elected not to flow. Be interesting to see when they actually update the seniority numbers.
Last update of Seniority numbers was early July 2019.
Current Seniority vs Sequence and Difference
Seniority Sequence Difference
99 65 34
200 163 37
300 256 44
400 351 49
500 443 57
600 541 59
700 636 64
780 705 75
The ‘so what’ of this is the difference between any number and the 34 at Seniority 99 represents outside attrition over 5 months (July 9- December 5)
For example, at 780 it is 8.2 people attrition outside of the flow per month average.
At 300 it is only 2 people per month attrition outside of the flow per month.
Any estimate is based on your seniority/sequence number minus the current flow point on the list and the changing rates of outside attrition as you get closer to flow plus the 66 or so flows per year.