This is what they’re counting on to make the flow stay under 6 years.

I said previously that based upon the increased big six and LCC hiring starting in 2020 that their projection - while inaccurate - probably won’t be far off.

I backed their claims in 2014-2015 of a 5.5-6 year flow because the math supported it. They just recently flowed the 2,000th pilot and it happened in under 6 years. I took a lot of heat from guys on here, talkairline and other places for being their “water boy” All I can say is I’ve always spoken the truth, even when it wasn’t always popular to do so. In my opinion, their claims of a 5.5-6 year flow won’t be that far off. Predicated upon no significant industry disasters, wars and such.

That said, I think the new metric that is going to make that flow rate attainable is a different metric than the one to date. Previously Envoy got 50% of all new hire slots. In practice it often got over 60%. Currently Envoy is getting 35% of all new hire slots. So, how can the flow possibly stay at 5.5-6 years?

The answer is obvious, the attrition will increase as flow becomes less and less important. Pilots putting the effort in to leave will be gone to a major/LCC/ACMI long long before ever waiting to flow. The pilot shortage attrition is what will keep the flow time short.