Originally Posted by
whalesurfer
All very good points Boiler and I’ll (again!) be the first one to admit when/if I’m wrong. I truly hope you’re right.
New airplanes being delivered doesn’t mean much to me as we were getting new planes back then too. Age 67/68, a slowing economy and/or parking of MD11s, BCFs and some 757s on the other hand would change the equation in a heartbeat.
I’m used to “Expectation Zero”. However, sometimes it feels as though our company’s slogan of “Worldwide Services” is slowly being replaced with ”Work Hard. Have Fun. Make History.”
So let me get this straight? Revenue growth of near consistently 5% quarter after quarter, BILLIONS spent upgrading sorting facilities, expanding/hedging new revenue sources (health care, B2B, B2C), creating new Asian lanes and lowering delivery times, a CEO who consistently says he is “cautiously” optimistic, laser focus on unit profitability, etc, etc. Not even going to mention new airplanes as they are almost irrelevant to the growth.
I would argue a company focusing on short term gains would not be spending billions in CAPEX. A decade+ ago we were not about to enter a prolonged period of massive retirements, no one was even close to 30 years. You can be all the skeptical you want, much different times. And age 67, everyone has an opinion, let’s just say one big player (ALPA) wants no part of it and will fight it very hard, just one player among many (including EASA) that don’t want it.
That is also why I commend Fedex for taking the long view, thinking years from now. Wall street (not that it means anything) had been very critical of UPS the last few quarters for being behind on CAPEX, now finally onboard CAPEX finally being made in a big way. If you are referring yo short term gains with Amazon, well, that is to be seen. I figure they have 2-3 years to wean off it, slowly while replacing with a different revenue source. Maybe their approach is why rip off the bandage when I can nurse the wound a bit longer and slowly get rid of the medication. Or maybe, just maybe, they will negotiate a long term deal to carry a guaranteed portion of their stuff. No one knows.
NOTHING is impossible, of course. But comparing middle 2000’s and now is simply misguided and based in emotion. Very different set of economic and situational circumstances. Oh, and consumers keep buying MORE AND MORE online rather than brick and mortar, another phenomena that did not exist back then.